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☆ Stock market today: Stocks rally ahead of big April jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stocks closed higher on Thursday ahead of Apple earnings and the April jobs report. Bank of America's Savita Subramanian said the stock market has more room to run even without a rate cut. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementUS indexes closed higher on Thursday ahead of Apple's earnings and a key labor report set to be published Friday morning. Bank of America's US equity head, Savita Subramanian, has said the stock market has more room to run even without looser monetary policy.

Persons: America's Savita Subramanian, —, Dow Jones, Veronica Clark, payrolls, Jerome Powell, Savita Subramanian Organizations: Apple, Bank, America's, Service, Nvidia, Microsoft, Dow, Citi, Bank of, Bloomberg, Nasdaq Locations: China

☆ A rate cut in June is still on tap because the job market is weakening, Citi economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

It's still likely the Fed will issue its first rate cut this June, Citi economist Veronica Clark said. That's because central bankers will need to support a weakening labor market, Clark told Yahoo Finance. AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve is still likely to cut rates in June in order to prop up the labor market amid a slowdown in hiring, according to Citi economist Veronica Clark. "We have a base case for June still," Clark said of rate cuts, though she noted a July Fed rate cut was also possible. Markets are now pricing in just one or two cuts by December, according to the CME FedWatch tool, down from as many as seven rate cuts projected at the start of 2024.

Persons: It's, Veronica Clark, Clark, —, That's, Powell Organizations: Citi, Yahoo Finance, Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics — Locations: Central

☆ Slowing growth plus stubborn inflation add up to a headache for Fed officials
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The slowing growth and stubborn inflation picture emerging in the U.S. economy may not be quite a nightmare scenario for the Federal Reserve, but it at least could make for some restless sleep. Markets had been looking for the string of good readings dating back to mid-2022 to continue, with economists estimating real GDP growth of 2.4% and inflation readings around 3%. What it got was essentially what some on Wall Street called the worst of both worlds, with weakening growth and stubborn price pressures. The Fed will get a more granular look at PCE data on Friday when the Commerce Department releases the monthly figures for March. "We still think Fed cuts are coming this summer, before inflation has sustainably slowed."

Persons: Matthew Ryan, —, Ryan, Steven Blitz, Veronica Clark Organizations: Federal Reserve, Commerce, Treasury, Commerce Department, TS Lombard, Citigroup, Citi Locations: U.S

☆ Clark: It bears watching state unemployment data that could foretell a potential recession
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailClark: It bears watching state unemployment data that could foretell a potential recessionCiti economist Veronica Clark discusses whether hiring growth will continue to hold up, and items below the surface of the headline jobs report figures that could spark concerns about the labor market.

Persons: Veronica Clark Organizations: Citi

☆ Investors can expect the first Fed rate cuts in June, says Citi's Veronica Clark
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInvestors can expect the first Fed rate cuts in June, says Citi's Veronica ClarkVeronica Clark, Citi economist, and Peter Boockvar, Bleakley Advisory Group CIO, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the economy, latest market trends, the Fed's rate path outlook, and more.

Persons: Citi's Veronica Clark Veronica Clark, Peter Boockvar Organizations: Citi, Bleakley

☆ US job growth probably slowed in October due to UAW strike
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The anticipated moderation in employment growth last month would also be pay back after September's enormous gains, the largest in eight months. The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday is expected to show labor market conditions steadily easing, with annual wage growth the smallest in nearly 2-1/2 years and significant growth in the supply of workers. Manufacturing payrolls are forecast falling 10,000 after advancing 17,000 in September. Last week, the BLS reported at least 30,000 UAW members were on strike during the period it surveyed businesses for October's employment report. Wages gains would still be above the 3.5% that economists say is consistent with the Fed's 2% target.

Persons: Brian Snyder, Detroit's, Sam Bullard, payrolls, Veronica Clark, we've, Sung Won Sohn, we're, Brian Bethune, that's, Lucia Mutikani, David Gregorio Our Organizations: Taylor Party, Equipment Rentals, REUTERS, UAW, United Auto Workers, Labor, Federal Reserve, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Manufacturing, BLS, Citigroup, UPS, Finance, Loyola Marymount University, Boston College, Thomson Locations: Somerville , Massachusetts, U.S, WASHINGTON, Wells, Charlotte , North Carolina, New York, Los Angeles

☆ Strong retail sales, factory output point to robust US growth in third quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSummaryCompanies Retail sales increase 0.7% in SeptemberCore retail sales rise 0.6%; August sales revised upManufacturing production increases 0.4%WASHINGTON, Oct 17 (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in September as households stepped up purchases of motor vehicles and spent more at restaurants and bars, cementing expectations that economic growth accelerated sharply in the third quarter. Retail sales rose 0.7% last month. Economists defended their forecast for tepid retail sales growth, which they said was based on softening consumer confidence. Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales rose 0.6% in September. Data for August was revised up to show these so-called core retail sales gaining 0.2% instead of 0.1% as previously reported.

Persons: Eduardo Munoz, Goldman Sachs, Christopher Rupkey, James Knightley, Jay Hawkins, Veronica Clark, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Fed, Reuters, Commerce Department's, ING, BMO Capital Markets, Treasury, Financial, Amazon, Commerce Department, Citigroup, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York, Toronto

☆ Moderate US job growth slowdown expected in September
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday is also expected to show wage gains remaining elevated. Eighteen months after the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates, the labor market is only gradually easing. Labor market resilience, which is underpinning demand in the economy, raises the risk that the U.S. central bank could hike rates again by year end. Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 170,000 jobs last month after rising 187,000 in August. Wage growth likely remained solid, with average hourly earnings forecast to have risen 0.3% after climbing 0.2% in August.

Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Nick Bunker, Nonfarm, payrolls, Veronica Clark, Clark, Megan Way, Lucia Mutikani, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Labor, Federal Reserve, Citigroup, United Auto Workers, UAW, General Motors, Ford Motor, Chrysler, Hollywood, Babson College, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, y WASHINGTON, Tampa , Florida, Payrolls, New York, Washington ., Wellesley , Massachusetts

☆ Low weekly jobless claims, shrinking trade deficit boost US economic picture
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Trade balanceExports of goods and services increased 1.6% to $256.0 billion. Goods imports dropped 0.9% to $256.0 billion amid declines in imports of consumer and capital goods, potentially flagging softening domestic demand amid higher borrowing costs. Cell phones and other household goods accounted for the drop in consumer goods imports. The decrease in capital goods imports reflected declines in semiconductors and electric apparatus. Services imports increased $0.1 billion to $58.4 billion, supported by travel and other business services.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, Christopher Rupkey, Unadjusted, nonfarm payrolls, Oscar Munoz, Goldman Sachs, Veronica Clark, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Reuters, Employers, Institute for Supply Management, United Auto Workers, UAW, Ford, General Motors, Chrysler, Treasury, Challenger, Labor, Securities, Commerce Department, Goods, Services, Citigroup, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York City , New York, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York, Ohio, California

☆ The goal for Fed Chair Powell in Jackson Hole is to 'not rock the boat', says Citi's Veronica Clark
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe goal for Fed Chair Powell in Jackson Hole is to 'not rock the boat', says Citi's Veronica ClarkVeronica Clark, Citi economist, and Jack Caffrey, JPMorgan Asset Management equity portfolio manager, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's Jackson Hole meeting, what's at stake for markets and the economy, latest market trends, and more.

Persons: Powell, Citi's Veronica Clark Veronica Clark, Jack Caffrey, Jackson, what's Organizations: Fed, Citi, JPMorgan Asset Management Locations: Jackson

☆ Slower, but still strong US employment growth expected in July
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday is still expected to show a tight labor market, with the unemployment rate steady near multi-decade lows, though wage growth probably moderated. Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 200,000 jobs last month, after rising 209,000 in June, according to a Reuters survey of 80 economists. Still, employment growth would be double the roughly 100,000 jobs per month needed to keep up with the increase in the working age population. Striking Hollywood writers and actors also likely had no impact on employment growth. Though annual wage growth remains too high to be consistent with the Fed's 2% inflation target, it would be the latest indication of wage pressures continuing to subside into the third quarter.

Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Sam Bullard, Nonfarm, Carl Riccadonna, Sung Won Sohn, Veronica Clark, Lucia Mutikani, Diane Craft Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Labor, Fed, BNP, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Institute for Supply, Labor Department, Conference, Finance, Loyola Marymount University, Citigroup, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, WASHINGTON, Wells, Charlotte , North Carolina, New York, Los Angeles

Powell acknowledged as a positive development that inflation has fallen from the highs of last year without serious damage to the economy. "We'll be comfortable cutting rates when we're comfortable cutting rates, and that won't be this year," Powell said. 'MODERATE' GROWTHU.S. Treasury yields slid in choppy trading after the release of the Fed policy statement, while U.S. stocks ended largely unchanged. Futures markets showed little change in bets on the path of Fed rate increases over the remainder of the year, with small odds given to a rise in September. Though Powell said Fed staff had relaxed a prediction of a recession in coming months, outside analysts still think that's what it may take to finish the inflation fight.

Persons: Powell, Jerome Powell, Elizabeth Frantz Powell, what's, Kathy Bostjancic, nodded, Taylor Swift, he's, Veronica Clark, we're, Howard Schneider, Michael S, Safiyah Riddle, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Reuters, U.S . Federal Reserve, Federal, Committee, REUTERS, Treasury, Nationwide, Citi, Derby, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, Washington , U.S

☆ There's more downside risk than upside 'where we're trading now', says G Squared's Victoria Greene
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere's more downside risk than upside 'where we're trading now', says G Squared's Victoria GreeneVeronica Clark, Citi economist, and Victoria Greene, G Squared Private Wealth CIO, join 'Squawk Box' to preview Wednesday's CPI data, the potential impact on markets, and more.

Persons: Victoria Greene Veronica Clark, Victoria Greene Organizations: Citi, Private Wealth

☆ US producer inflation subsides as energy, food prices drop
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Reuters GraphicsGoods prices, which rose 0.2% in April, were last month depressed by a 6.8% tumble in energy prices. Gasoline prices plummeted 13.8%, accounting for 60% of the decrease in goods prices. The cost of services rose 0.2% after advancing 0.3% in April, driven by margins for automobiles and parts retailing. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the so-called core goods prices edged up 0.1% last month, matching April's gain. The narrower measure of core PPI, which strips out food, energy and trade services components, was unchanged after inching up 0.1% in April.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, Christopher Rupkey, Veronica Clark, Jerome Powell, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, PPI, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics, Fed, Reuters, Treasury, Citigroup, CPI, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York City, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York, Ukraine

☆ The latest inflation readings are expected to show that prices are still rising
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Stubbornly higher prices across multiple key categories of goods and services are expected to at least keep the inflation rate steady — and possibly even push levels up. That would put the respective annual inflation rates at 5%, essentially unchanged from March , and 5.5%, down just 0.1 percentage point. With inflation rising rapidly around this same time in 2022, the year-over-year comparisons should make the annual rate go down. "We continue to project inflation will ease over the course of the year with the headline CPI inflation dropping considerably in May and June as a result of base effects," UBS economist Jonathan Pringle wrote. April's nonfarm payrolls report also showed that average hourly earnings increased 0.5% on the month and 4.4% annually, both higher than expected.

☆ 'Welcome to the recession:' Most of Wall Street still sees trouble ahead for the U.S. economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

In fact, excluding the drag from inventories, GDP growth actually would have been closer to 3.4%, well above trend. However, most economists and strategists on Wall Street think the U.S. economy is still on the path to recession. We continue to expect the drag from higher interest rates and tightening credit conditions to push the economy into a mild recession soon." Jim Baird, chief investment officer, Plante Moran Financial Advisors "For all the discussion of recession risk – which is very real – consumers remain willing and able to spend. Recession risks remain elevated; the first estimate of Q1 GDP confirms that the economy continues to slow.

☆ Economic growth likely was solid to start the year, but that could end the good news for a while
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The U.S. economy likely grew at a solid pace to start the year, though things are expected to get worse before they get better. "It shows an economy that so far is resilient, weathering all kinds of storms so far and growing at pretty close to potential. Where the growth is So far, consumers have managed to withstand the higher rates. "We expect a solid 2.3% (QoQ SAAR) increase in Q1 real GDP, with details that appear even more positive for the economic backdrop. Despite rising debt levels and the prospects that financing will become more difficult to come by, consumers are in fairly solid shape.

Another quarter-point increase is expected, but policymakers have also said they are watching banking data closely for signs of stress or a larger-than-anticipated drop in lending. The minutes "will likely express confidence in the separability of price stability and financial stability." Still, the events on that March 10 weekend added new complexity to a Fed policy debate that had been singlemindedly focused on lowering inflation from levels that last year were more than triple the Fed's 2% target. New consumer price index data released Wednesday is expected to show headline inflation falling, but with a still-high level of underlying or "core" inflation likely to concern Fed policymakers. Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Jobs report should show increased growth and lower unemployment, says Citi economist Veronica Clark
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJobs report should show increased growth and lower unemployment, says Citi economist Veronica ClarkGabriela Santos, J.P. Morgan Asset Management global market strategist, and Veronica Clark, Citi economist, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss the economic metrics Clark is monitoring, how to measure the impact from recent economic woes and more.

☆ US labor market remains tight; Q4 labor costs revised higher
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Those worries were further heightened by another report from the Labor Department on Thursday showing labor costs grew much faster than previously estimated in the fourth quarter. The labor market remains tight despite rising risks of a recession, contributing to keeping inflation elevated via solid wage gains. A second report from the Labor Department showed unit labor costs - the price of labor per single unit of output - increased at a 3.2% annualized rate last quarter. Labor costs rose at a 6.9% rate in the third quarter, and notched hefty gains in the prior two quarters. The unemployment rate at 3.4% in January was the lowest in more than 53 years.

☆ US weekly jobless claims decline further
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 190,000 for the week ended Feb. 25, the Labor Department said on Thursday. It was the seventh straight week that claims remained below 200,000. Economists also speculate that severance packages were keeping some laid off workers from filing claims. Labor market resilience and stubbornly high inflation have increased the odds of the Fed raising interest rates at least three more times this year instead of twice. The so-called continuing claims, a proxy for hiring, covered the period during which the government surveyed households for February's unemployment rate.

☆ Strong U.S. jobs, wages growth expected in December
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

However, job growth would far exceed the pace needed to keep up with growth in the working-age population, comfortably in the 150,000-300,000 range that economists associate with tight labor markets. Household employment decreased in October and November, leading some economists to speculate that overall job growth was overstated. Yet the household survey tends to be volatile and most economists expect household employment would be revised toward nonfarm payrolls. "We would not be surprised to see an even larger rebound in household employment in December or over the coming months." But the trend in employment growth could slow significantly by mid-year.

☆ U.S. trade deficit widens as goods exports hit seven-month low
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The trade deficit increased 5.4% to $78.2 billion. Surveys from the Institute for Supply Management this month showed measures of manufacturing and services exports stuck in contraction territory in November. But consumer goods imports dropped, pulled down by cell phones and other household goods as well as toys, games and sporting goods. The overall decline in consumer goods imports is in line with slowing demand for goods because of higher borrowing costs. Adjusted for inflation, the goods deficit increased $8.3 billion to $112.6 billion in October.

☆ U.S. services industry regains steam; factory orders accelerate
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Economists shrugged off a survey from S&P Global confirming its services PMI was stuck in contraction territory in November. Thirteen services industries including construction, healthcare and social assistance, retail trade as well as professional, scientific and technical services reported growth last month. But information, wholesale trade and management of companies and support services reported a decline. Factory ordersIn November, the ISM's measure of services industry employment increased to 51.5 from 49.1 in October. The survey's measure of services industry supplier deliveries fell to 53.8 from 56.2 in October.

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